OUTLOOK FOR 2010

  • Land prices down 50% to 70% or more depending upon location and entitlements.
  • Failing and "frozen" community and regional banks with virtually no credit or financing available.
  • Over 500,000 residential foreclosures and an increasing level of additional non-performing commercial loans.
  • A trend toward moving foreclosures out of the courts and into mediation.
  • Home values back to or below 2000 price levels.
  • New home sales absorption back to 2000 levels due to the government's first time starter home tax credit of $8,000 creating a slight rebound.
  • The rental apartment sector is the brightest sector and should continue to perform well in 2010-2012.
  • The Florida consumer and many small businesses are uncertain, resulting in teetering retail establishments and shrinking employment and demand for office space.
  • Population growth statewide down from 1.8% to about .5% due to the loss of over 250,000 construction and related jobs.
  • Some regional markets like SW Orlando, the Tampa Bay area, and Sarasota-Manatee are showing early signs of recovery, particularly in the rental apartment sector.
  • Water availability becoming an increasingly important issue as the Bureau of Water Management becomes more restrictive.
  • Relief in some counties from impact and other fees in an effort to stimulate growth.
  • Southeast and Southwest Florida hit the hardest in the current real estate depression and not expected to reach recovery for several years (maybe 2013-15). Central Florida (Orlando), the Tampa Bay area, and Jacksonville are fairing better and should rebound more quickly.
  • Many private investment capital funds seeking great buys on existing non-performing loans and "distressed real estate", but banks resisting the huge required write-offs that would in many cases lead to their failures (some sales being consummated but the investment demand vastly exceeds the willing bank sellers without additional FDIC and Treasury Department pressure).

FORECAST/PREDICTION
Due to the international recession/depression led by the US financial system breakdown or bust, the Florida economy and its real estate markets have limited credit and will take another three to five years to rebound (and could even get a little worse in 2010-2012) before high speed rail, alternative energy, and other stimulus projects lead new job growth and a real sustainable recovery.